This short article was born in a English writing class.
Assignment was to choose an article from newspaper or magazine or
Internet, and to write a comment.
The article I chose was on the Newsweek, written by M. Englund and
presented a short report around this possible risk of deflation in
the US market, and if we should be scared or not.
June 30, 2003
Deflation or Inflation ?
The author takes the May, 6 Fed statement concerning a forecast of
slowdown of prices’ race and a shy warning of deflation. He starts
from this point to offer his thesis that these fears are
unfounded. And are unfounded because he stands for that the next
issue of the chain-price index, due in few weeks, will show an
impressive slowdown and prices should remain steady enough. At the
moment let’s take this assertion for good, but what on a six months
period? Or, better, on one year or two?
An other cornerstone of his dissertation is related to a predicted
flat figure of the personal consumption expenditures [PCE] index.
With this is easy to agree because is sufficient to go around in the
streets to see the increasing poverty of the people.
Only with these last two affirmations we can already figure out
that the columnist is waiting for a small or null rise of the prices
into the next months.
Then he talks about a weakness regarding the freefall already
reported in the last March and April. What it appears he doesn’t give
enough importance is that weakness is a word that must be applied to
the current status of the dollar. It is not a secret that into at
least the last two years the dollar has been pushed and closed into
the corner of the ring by the euro’ currency. We’ll better analyze
later how it came.
Not happy he keeps on talking of a fall of 3% in the prices of
durable and nondurable goods, and a fall of 6% in the prices of
import, into the next index issue. Here once again the author shows
an optimistic visual on what’s happening. For sure there will be, and
already we can see, a small fall of prices for primary goods, by
example in some groceries you can buy three gallons (about 11.36 L.)
of milk for five dollars; but I remeber the times in which half a
kilogram (about 1 lb.) of beef was only fifty cents. So it’s my
humble opinion that one of the things to do, by example, is to
decrease the cost of services. And surely is needed a better
awareness of the people’ needings, that means less gains for the
Infact in these times of evilness and witchness not casually one
of the most rising movement is the socalled ‘No Globals’.
Then the author touches the argument ‘war’ and the related fall
of gas’ price. But this is exactly the reason for which Bush has gone
in war. From the economic analisys of the past we know that after a
war one of the consequnces is a fall of the barrel cost; by example
as it happened after the Gulf War in 1991. Don’t let they convince
you about hijacking or terrorism: sure - altough this matter smells
of fake - that’s a major threat, but remeber that of everything they
talk about, they always talk about money. Let me remember you:
"The louder he talked of his honor, the faster we counted our
” — Ralph Waldo Emerson. More seriously:
“Nothing is easier than the expenditure of public money. It
doesn't appear to belong to anyone. The temptation is overwhelming to
bestow it on somebody
” — Calvin Coolidge.
And talking of war, believe me: the Schengen Agreement by the
European States in 1985 was made exactly to protect all the small
european currency and the weakness of the economies of their
respective states; but to protect them by whom if not by the
overwhelming US strong economy? So an open mind can easily explain
that the attack to the US is not the terrorism but an attach brought
to the US economy and to the dollar through the terrorism . And
believe me, I don’t know when but in the future not only it will
come out this matter of the economic attack to the US economy but
also that this attack has been accurately planned.
As we can see, by example, the US groceries invaded by
Italy-Spain-Greece’ food like Barilla or Buitoni or Bertolli or
Algida; French beauty products like L’Oreal or Lancome; Germany
cars like Mercedes or Bmw, and so on.
Now let’s come back to our essay; going on through the article,
we find other comparisons and forecasts. That lead more to optimism.
But all the article is pervaded by a spreaded sense of optimism. So
it comes spontaneus to ask ourselves who reads this stuff. Surely a
shepard of the mountains of Sardinia, or a fisherman of the Ivory
Coast whose yearly income, in the best of the cases, is about 250
US$ - doesn’t care much of the BusinessWeek Online; so we can
reasonly suppose that the article is strictly tailored for a
middle-(or better)-class audience. Then, it must be tranquil. Who has
never seen a reporter that investigates deeply the truth? They are so
rare. “A good newspaper, I suppose, is a nation talking to itself
” — Arthur Miller.
And does this mean that it isn’t true? Surely not, predictions
and forecasts are well done, with solid bases. The matter is what it
will happen on a long distance. Are our savings safe enough? I mean
for the ones who have savings, of course. It appears yes, at the
horizon seems appearing a shining sun. But for the one who has read
The Revelations of St. John, and has the Faith, the truth is clear.
But this is another matter.
Or we could think of
“The government deficit is the difference between the amount
of money the government spends and the amount it has the nerve to
” — Sam Ewing.
So what is happening to the money? And more important where is
going the inflation?
“There are a lot of things money can't buy -- for example, what
it bought last year
” — Peter's Almanac.
“The way money goes so fast these days, they should paint
racing stripes on it
” — Mark Russell.
"Money talks. It says: 'Goodbye'
" — Unattributed
After all these words, let me leave you with a reflection:
“If you want to know what God thinks of money, look at the
people He gives it to
” — Joe Moore.
However this argument is too serious and includes so several
variables to be fully dealed with in this short commentary. So I
think to have at least contributed to:
“The decline of literature indicates the decline of a nation
” - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
I tried to do of my best, if I didn't succeed I hope - talking of
money - to have gained at least a smile from you.